Forex - Forex Forcast

The Foreign exchange market or forex market occurs wherever one foreign currency is traded for another. It is the largest market in the world with daily trading of US $1.9 billion. Individuals actually make up a very small part of this market and when they do participate they do so through a broker or other professional trader. In order to play the trading game, one must know how to forex forecast correctly. There are two major ways to do this: technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

To forex forecast using technical analysis, you must understand a variety of technical analysis tools. Such tools include the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic oscillator, moving average convergence divergence (MACD), number theories, waves, gaps, and trends. The RSI, stochastic oscillator, MACD, gaps and trends are all extremely common technical analysis tools for those trying to forecast as well as play the stock market. While these tools can be used for the stock market, they can be used equally as well in forex forecasting.

Both the RSI and stochastic oscillator measure whether a currency is overbought or under-bought. The MACD on the other hand measures whether or not a trend will continue going up or down. When using charts to forex forecast, one may notice gaps between the bars. This occurs when no trading took place and an up-gap usually represents a strong market force, while a down-gap will indicate the opposite. The trends or Trendlines indicate an upward price movement or downward price movement based on the peaks and troughs of the trendline. None of these technical analysis tools require you to do the math. There are plenty of charts services on the web that are either free or require a fee that can do these calculations for you.

Other technical analysis tools that were mentioned include number theories. The two main number theories are the Fibonacci and the Gann. The Fibonacci numbers involve adding numbers to come to a ratio of 62% that is a popular retracement number. The Gann numbers are based on the theory of W.D. Gann who during the 1950s made an extraordinary amount of money performing forex forecasting. Gann used a variety of forecasting methods in order to measure price movement and time. These are presently known as price/time equivalents. To learn more about technical analysis tools and how to use them, one can turn to the web or their local bookstore. There are plenty of sites and books whose goal it is to teach people the art of forex forecasting. Keep in mind, that forex forecasting using technical analysis is not easy and it will require a great amount of studying. When it comes to performing technical analysis, some people prefer one analysis tool to another and this is not an indicator of which method is actually better. It is just a matter of personal preference.

The other method of forex forecasting, fundamental analysis, involves using factors outside of charts and numbers. The factors include political, environmental, and economic issues. For example, if a hurricane hit the United States coast and shut down a lot of major refineries the result on gas prices could influence the strength of the dollar. The fundamental analyst looks at the big picture of a country and the world and they must be extremely familiar with political, economic, and environmental news around the world. Fundamental analysis is not for someone who picks up a paper once a week. It requires devotion and a true interest in issues around the world.

When forex forecasting, some people choose to use either fundamental or technical analysis based on what works the best for them. However, it is probably best if you have strength in one method of analysis, but still reference the other. This is because there is not one single method that will provide you with the right answer. Also, while the technical chart may show a strong currency, if you are not aware of political and economic issues within a country then you could be blindsided, thusly losing a lot of money. Prior to forex forecasting, you should practice by paying attention to trading levels and picking your entry and exit points. When you feel you have reach a good point in successful forex forecasting practicing then you can move on to real forex forecasting.