Austin Real Estate - Texas Primary May Decide Democratic Party Nominee

The presidential primary March 4th in Texas may decide which Democrat faces the likely Republican Party nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the final two Democrats left, face off in a tough, high-profile showdown in the Lone Star State.

The Democratic candidates are almost in a dead heat in the state, according to a Houston Chronicle poll. Texas voters in the Democratic Party primary are diverse, with just more than half either Hispanic or African-American. The 228 delegates will be split according to vote totals in the 31 state senate districts, with precinct conventions and a state caucus deciding the rest. Also, voter participation in the 2004 and 2006 elections for each district decides how delegates each senate district receives. For example, a heavily Hispanic district in south Texas with low voter turnout in the last two statewide elections could receive 7 delegates, while a high-turnout district in Houston gets 10 delegates, according to Chronicle. This complicated system of choosing delegates has some Democrats unhappy and calling for a change.

The estimated cost to campaign in Texas' diverse markets is an expensive million dollars a week, and Senator Obama has been raising that much per day, collecting $32 million in January, while Senator Clinton just loaned her campaign $5 million, and some of her senior aides are working without salaries this month. After raising $13.5 million in January, Clinton announced Feb. 7th that her campaign raised $7.5 million in just one week; Obama's campaign then went out and raised that much in 36 hours. That's why Mrs. Clinton wants to debate Senator Obama once a week on television, since such publicity is free. So far, Mr. Obama has agreed to only one debate, and that's in Cleveland, Ohio, February 26th on NBC. There's also talk about one Texas debate.

Former White House Senior Advisor Karl Rove proclaimed on Fox News Feb. 7th that the Democratic nominee will come out of the Texas Primary, and that may be the case.

If Senator Obama momentum continues and he wins the most of the contests Feb. 19th, as polling suggests, he will come into Texas ahead of Mrs. Clinton. Already in big trouble, if Hillary then loses Texas, she would come into the Democratic Convention an underdog, if not outright loser. If Obama loses in Texas, Hillary may still win the nomination. With Ohio also voting March 4th, Texas may decide which Democrat faces Mr. McCain November 4th.